[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:31:48 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the previous day. New region
1218(S16E66) produced a C1 X-ray flare and region 1208(N09W90)
produced a C2 event. The solar wind speed reduced from around
550 km/s to around 420 km/s over the day with the IMF Bz close
to 0nT all day. Solar activity is expected to remain Low over
the next few days with no regions on disc having a high flare
probability. The solar wind speed is expected to return to quiescent
levels during the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 7 2-------
Canberra 1 11101100
Hobart 1 11101100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2233 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid lattitudes
and Unsettled with isolated Active periods in polar regions.
The recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream largely
abated over the day. Conditions are expected to be Quiet for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 45 near predicted monthly values
20 May 45 near predicted monthly values
21 May 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF
depressions were observed at low latitudes for several hours
after local nightfall. Daytime propagation conditions are expected
to be good for the next 3 days, with nightime depressed periods
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list