[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:26:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
several B-class events and a single C1 event from region 1208(N11W50).
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days,
with the possibility of isolated C-class events. Solar wind speed
increased from 330km/s to 550km/s due to coronal hole effects.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days and
gradually decline on 18 May.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
15/0420UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22132221
Darwin 7 22132222
Townsville 7 22232221
Learmonth 8 22232222
Canberra 4 11121221
Hobart 5 12121221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 May 8 Mostly Quiet, with isolated Unsettled periods.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects, with a return to
mostly Quiet conditions on 18 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 48 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
17 May 48 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
18 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with
the possibility of periods of minor to mild degradations at high
and some mid latitude locations due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. A return to
near-normal conditions is expected on 18 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 20800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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