[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 15 09:35:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed varied mostly between 300-340 km/s showing
a gradual increase in the late hours of the UT day. The Bz
component of IMF varied between +/- 5 nT, staying mostly
close to the normal value. The effect of a coronal hole may
strengthen the solar wind stream for the next three days.
Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low levels for the
next 3 days. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1195 is
due for return to the south-east limb around 15 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11000101
Darwin 2 21000102
Townsville 1 1100011-
Learmonth 1 10000201
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible.
16 May 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible.
17 May 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with the possibility of
isolated Active periods may be expected for the next three days
due to the possible effect of a coronal hole during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions with some possibility of minor to mild
degradations at high and some mid latitude locations may be expected
for the next 3 days due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 45 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
16 May 45 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
17 May 45 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with
the possibility of periods of minor to mild degradations at high
and some mid latitude locations due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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