[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 14 09:47:36 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed varied mostly between 320-360km/s and Bz 
component of IMF stayed close to the normal value staying 
slightly positive (upto around +5nT) for relatively longer 
periods of time. A possible glancing blow from a CME observed 
on 11 May may strengthen the solar wind stream on 14 May. 
A narrow equatorial coronal hole is also expected to strengthen 
the solar wind stream from 14 to 16 May. Previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1195 is due for return to the south-east 
limb around 15 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            2   10111111
      Canberra             2   -3000100
      Hobart               1   11101100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions may be expected for the 
next three days due to the possible effects of a CME on 14 May 
and that of a coronal hole from 14 to 16 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions with some possibility of minor to mild 
degradations at high latitudes may be expected for the next 3 
days due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 May    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    48    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    45    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
16 May    45    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions, with isolated periods of 
presence of sporadic E-layer at low latitudes, were observed 
today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 days with the possibility of periods of minor to mild 
degradations at high latitudes due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    51800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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