[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 17 09:32:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the previous day with only
B class X-ray flares. Region 1214(S25W11) is growing, however
it remains relatively small and magnetically simple. Region
1208(N08W64) has produced C-class flares and may continue to
do so over the next few days. Acitivty is expected to remain
Low for the next few days. The solar-wind speed ranged between
400-600 Km/s over the day with some IMF Bz southward excursions
of up to -8nT. The wind speed is expected to remain elevated for
at least another 24 hours before gradually declining over the
subsequent day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 9 22333122
Darwin 10 22333222
Townsville 9 22333122
Learmonth 10 22333222
Canberra 9 21333122
Hobart 10 21334122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 62 (Active)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2112 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 May 7 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with
some isolated Active periods at high lattitudes. This activity
was due to the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream which
is expected to persist for the next 24 hours before declining
over the subsequent day, when conditions are expected to return
to Quiet.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the
previous day, with some isolated mild MUF depressions at low
and mid lattitudes. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next day, and subsequent days are expected to be
consistantly Good.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressions of up to 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 55 near predicted monthly values
18 May 55 near predicted monthly values
19 May 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed. Some MUF
depressions of up to 20% were observed at low and mid lattitudes,
particularly during local night. Stations where these were
most pronounced were Cocos Island and Darwin, with some more
mild depressions seen at Learmonth. Similar isolated depressions
may occur during the next 24 hours after which consistantly Good
conditions are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list