[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 5 09:31:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 107/57 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The solar wind speed decayed from 580Km/s to 450Km/s
over the day. The IMF Bz mostly varied between +/- 4nT. SDO images
show a filament erupting at 1659UT in the vicinity of region
1205(N14E23). STEREO B images show an associated CME with this
event. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a moderate
chance of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
low over the next 3 days, however some minor effects from CMEs
and coronal hole may slightly disturb the solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21211311
Darwin 5 21211311
Townsville 5 21211311
Learmonth 6 21211410
Canberra 3 11------
Hobart 6 22221310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 138 (Severe storm)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 4422 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 7 Quiet
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Some unsettled periods are possible over the forecast
period due to the effects of the CMEs and coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed at high latitudes
over the previous day. Mostly normal conditions were observed
elsewhere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 65 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
06 May 65 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
07 May 65 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUFs enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days with a possibility of minor degradations
on high latitudes locations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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