[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 6 09:33:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed further gradual decay from 440km/s
to 380Km/s over the forcasting period. The IMF Bz mostly varied
between +/- 4nT. A new region 1207(N24E40) was numbered. All
the active regions were stable. Solar activity is expected to
be very low with a moderate chance of C-class flares. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22212121
Darwin 6 22212122
Townsville 4 22112110
Learmonth 5 22212120
Canberra 5 12212121
Hobart 4 22212120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2121 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled periods are possible over the forecast
period at high latitudes locations.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal conditions with some minor depressed periods
were observed over the previous day. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
07 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
08 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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