[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 4 09:33:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1204(N17E26) produced a C1.3 flare at 1052 UT.
SDO images show a filament erupting from north-west quadrant
at around 1400UT.The solar wind speed gradually decayed from
around 680 km/s to under 560 km/s as the coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects decreased. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease,
however some minor effects from CMEs observed earlier may cause
some disturbance to solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 10 33232222
Darwin 9 33222222
Townsville 8 23232221
Learmonth 11 33232232
Canberra 8 23232221
Hobart 12 43233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 3543 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Some unsettled periods are expected at high latitudes
on day 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 65 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
05 May 65 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
06 May 70 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 676 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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