[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 23 10:34:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable
activity was a C3.9 flare at 0337UT from AR1176 and a C2.5 class
event at 1550UT from a yet to be determined region. Current regions
on the disk remain quiet and stable. The solar wind speed between
00UT-13UT was 320km/s after which it increased to 400km/s at
the time of this report, due to coronal hole effects. The IMF
was southward between 00UT-03UT at around -5nT and then remained
between 0 and 6nT. Solar activity is likely to be Low over the next
3 days with a slight chance of M class flares from returning region
AR1164 which is expected to rotate on disc within the next 24
hours.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1164 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 23 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 8 2321----
Learmonth 4 22222001
Canberra 3 12122001
Hobart 3 12112001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 7 Quiet
24 Mar 7 Quiet
25 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with possible Unsettled periods for mid-high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 1955UT 21/03, Ended at 2325UT 21/03
and, Began at 0035UT 22/03, Ended at 0345UT 22/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
MUFs enahanced 20% during local evening.
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced
MUFs ~20% for Equatorial regions again. Poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions due to the recent proton event. Continued
enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions expected for the next
2-3 days with mostly normal HF conditions for mid latitudes.
Improving HF conditions expected for Antarctic regions over the
next 24 hours with return to near monthly normal values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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