[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 24 10:40:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0218UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable
activity was an M1.4 class event at 0217UT from AR1176 along
with C and B class activity over the UT day. No major change
in size for the current regions on disk. The solar wind speed
increased from 400km/s at 00UT to ~500km/s at the time of this
report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the
next two days due to coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz ranged
between +/-5nT with only momentary southward excursions. Solar
activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with a chance
of M class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22322332
Darwin 9 22222332
Learmonth 9 31222332
Canberra 8 22321231
Hobart 8 22322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3311 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours with isolated active periods for high
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with Quiet conditions expected on 26Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0035UT 22/03, Ended at 0345UT 22/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern
AUS regions and slightly enhanced MUFs for Equatorial and Southern
AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions expected for the next
2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 46600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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