[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 22 10:51:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 125/78 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Notable
activity was a long-duration C2.6 flare at 1147 UT and an associated
increase in proton flux as observed by GOES satellite. This was
probably from newly emerging AR1176 which was AR1165 on the previous
rotation. Other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. The
solar wind speed ranged between 300-380km/s over the UT day while
IMF Bz was continuously southward from -2 to -7nT with brief
northward excursions to 5nT. Solar activity is likely to increase
over the next 3 days with the return of old region 1164.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1164 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 23 Mar. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1165 is also due for return to the south-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21100212
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 21000212
Canberra 3 21000212
Hobart 3 21100212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0111 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 5 Quiet
24 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days with possible Unsettled periods for mid-high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 03 2011 1955UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Poor
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced
MUFs ~20% for Equatorial regions. Poor ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions due to current proton event. Continued enhanced
conditions for Equatorial regions expected for the next 2-3 days
with mostly normal HF conditions for mid latitudes. Poor HF conditions
expected for Antarctic regions for the next 24 hours with return
to near monthly normal values on 23Mar-24Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 62600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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