[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:53:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: No significant flares were observed during 11 March,
however further M-class flare activity is possible over the next
few days from regions 1166 and 1169. Solar wind speeds were
predominantly below 450 km/s during the past 24 hours.
The IMF remained predominantly southward reaching values slightly
less than -10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly
elevated for the next few days as a coronal hole rotates into
a geoffective position and the effects from recent CME activity abates.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 33232444
Darwin 15 22232444
Townsville 18 33332444
Learmonth 21 33242544
Canberra 11 22232333
Hobart 18 33342443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 2244 3245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
13 Mar 15 Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active levels were observed for
the Australian region over the past 24 hours with minor to major
storm levels observed at southern hemisphere high latitude stations.
Mostly unsettled to active periods are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position and the effects of recent CME activity
abate. Minor storm periods are possible at times at high latitudes
during the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 0115UT 08/03, Ended at 0235UT 10/03
and, Began at 0645UT 10/03, Ended at 1235UT 10/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at mid-high
latitudes during 11 March, particularly during the early part
of the UT day. Mildly degraded conditions are are expected at
times for 12 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions
for 13-14 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 30 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at mid-high
latitudes during 11 March, particularly during the early part
of the UT day. Mildly degraded conditions are are expected at
times for 12 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions
for 13-14 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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