[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:53:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.6 09/2323UT probable all West Pacific
M1.1 2241UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: At the time of report an M1-flare was observed at 2241UT
on 10 March. Further M-class flare activity is possible over the
next 24 hours. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
approximately 06UT on 10 March, most likely due to the glancing
impact of CME activity of 7 March. Solar wind speeds are presently
below 400 km/s. Isolated active periods are possible at times
over the next 24 hours.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
10/0615UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 22444333
Darwin 12 22334223
Learmonth 16 22434243
Canberra 16 11444333
Hobart 20 11544343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 15 Unsettled to active
12 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0115UT 08/03, Ended at 0235UT 10/03
and, Began at 0645UT 10/03, Ended at 1235UT 10/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to degraded due
absorption.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
COMMENT: Degraded conditions were observed at times at high latitudes
during 10 March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event. Degraded
conditions have been observed since local dawn for mid-high latitudes
most likely the result of the mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
Degraded conditions are expected at times for 11 March for mid-high
latitudes, returning to mostly normal to good conditions for 12-13 March.
SWFs possible for 11 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 14200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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