[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 10 10:55:22 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1108UT possible lower European
M1.7 1403UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.6 2323UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: M-class flares were observed from solar region 1166
during 9 March. At the time of report a X1/-- was observed from
region 1166 at 2323UT on 9 March. Further M-class flare activity
is possible over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are presently
below 400 km/s with sustained southward IMF of approximately
2-5nT. An increase in solar wind speeds are possible during the
first half of the UT day of 10 March due to a possible glancing
impact of the CMEs observed during 7 March from regions 1164
and 1166.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21222113
Darwin 6 21222113
Townsville 7 2-------
Learmonth 7 21222123
Canberra 4 11211112
Hobart 3 10211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 25 Mostly quiet initially then active and possible
storm periods expected for the remainder of the
UT day.
11 Mar 15 Unsettled to active
12 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 8 March and
is current for interval 9-10 March. A glancing impact from recent
CME activity is still expected. Geomagnetic activity should be
mostly quiet initially for the UT day of 10 March with increased
activity possible later in first half the UT day. Active and
possible storm levels are expected for the latter half of the
UT day should the Earth receive a glancing impact from the CMEs
observed on 7 March. The anicipated increase in geomagnetic activity
should decrease into 11 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 03 2011 0115UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to significantly
degraded at times due to absorption.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced with
possible 5-15% depressions later in the UT day.
11 Mar 40 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at high
latitudes during 9 March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event.
Mostly normal to good conditions should be observed for 10 March.
Some slightly degraded conditions may be observed during the
latter half of the UT day of 10 March in response to anticipated
moderately increased geomagnetic activity. SWFs possible for
10 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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