[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:54:58 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0443UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: A weak type II sweep was observed in association with
the M1-flare from region 1166. There does not appear to be any
CME directly associated with this flare, although some weak CME
activity was observed within the few hours preceding this flare,
possibly from behind the east limb. Further M-class flare activity
is possible over the next few days. Solar wind speeds have increased
during the past 24 hours due to the presence of a coronal hole
wind stream and are presently around 550 km/s. The IMF has been
predominantly ranging between +-5 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain mildly elevated for the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 32212122
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 10 3321----
Learmonth 8 32212123
Canberra 7 32212122
Hobart 8 33222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 40 4542 2566
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled with the small chance of active
to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
14 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled with the small chance of active
to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
15 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled over the next few days under the influence of a
coronal hole solar wind stream. Active to minor storm periods
are possible at times at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions were observed at mid-high
latitudes during 12 March, particularly during the early part
of the UT day. Slightly degraded conditions are expected at times
for 13 March, returning to mostly normal to good conditions for
14-15 March. SWFs are possible for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 35 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 12 March
and is current for interval 12-13 March (SWFs) . Moderately degraded
conditions were observed at mid-high latitudes during 12 March,
particularly during the early part of the UT day. Slightly degraded
conditions are expected at times for 13 March, returning to mostly
normal to good conditions for 14-15 March. SWFs are possible
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 91300 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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