[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 8 10:55:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 1430UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3/-- 2012UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: M-class flares were observed from solar regions 1164,
1165 and 1166 during 7 March. Type II radio sweeps were observed
in association with the M1 flare from region 1166 and the M3
flare from region 1164. A CME was also observed in association
with the M1 flare from region 1166. Further M-class flare activity
is possible from these regions over the next 24 hours. Solar
wind speeds are presently below 400 km/s with sustained southward
IMF of approximately 5nT. An increase in solar wind speeds are
possible later in the UT day of 9 March due to a possible glancing
impact of the CME observed during 7 March from region 1166.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Darwin 7 22222222
Learmonth 10 32123233
Canberra 9 22133232
Hobart 9 22233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1100 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods possible.
09 Mar 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
and possible storm periods later in the UT day.
10 Mar 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 8
March. Isolated active periods are possible for 8 March due to
the sustained southward IMF. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly
quiet for the first half of the UT day of 9 March with increased
activity possible later in the UT of 9 March should the Earth
receive a glancing blow from the CME observed on 7 March. The
anicipated increase in geomagnetic activity should decrease into
10 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater
than 30% at times.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 50 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 50 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 35 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions should be observed
for 8-9 March. Some slightly degraded conditions may be observed
during 10 March in response to anticipated mildly increased
geomagnetic activity on 9 March. SWFs possible for 8-9 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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