[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 9 10:55:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **
YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0229UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0400UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M5.3 1044UT possible lower European
M4.4 1829UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2027UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2223UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: M-class flares were observed from solar regions 1165,
1171 during 8 March. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association
with the M1 flare from region 1171. A CME was also observed in
association with the M1 flare from region 1171 but does not appear
to be earthward directed. Further M-class flare activity is possible
from these regions over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds
are presently below 400 km/s with sustained southward IMF of
approximately 4nT. An increase in solar wind speeds are possible
later in the UT day of 9 March due to a possible glancing impact
of the CMEs observed during 7 March from regions 1164 and 1166.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22212212
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22212112
Canberra 4 12212101
Hobart 5 12212211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2102 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 20 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
and possible storm periods later in the UT day.
10 Mar 15 Unsettled to active
11 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 8 March and
is current for interval 9-10 March. Geomagnetic activity should
be mostly quiet for the first half of the UT day of 9 March with
increased activity possible later in the UT day of 9 March should
the Earth receive a glancing blow from the CMEs observed on 7
March. The anicipated increase in geomagnetic activity should
decrease into 10 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 03 2011 0115UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Poor(PCA)
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed at high
latitudes during 8 March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event.
Some slightly degraded conditions may be observed during 10 March
in response to anticipated mildly increased geomagnetic activity
on 9 March. SWFs possible for 9 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 50 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 35 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 8 March
and is current for interval 8-9 March (SWFs) . Significantly
degraded conditions were observed at high latitudes during 8
March due to a Polar Cap Absorption event. Mostly normal to good
conditions should be observed for 9 March. Some slightly degraded
conditions may be observed during 10 March in response to anticipated
mildly increased geomagnetic activity on 9 March. SWFs possible
for 9 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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