[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 7 10:32:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels today. Several
C-class flares were observed during the last 24 hours from
regions 1164 (N24W46), 1165 (S20W68), 1166 (N11E27) and a
new region 1169 (N21E56). Today's largest flare was a C8 at
06/1444Z from Region 1164. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from 530 km/s to nearly 440 km/s over the last 24 hours
indicating further weakening in the solar wind stream as the
coronal hole effect wanes. The Bz component of IMF varied
between +/- 5nT through most of the day today. Solar wind
stream is expected to show a further gradual weakeing over
the next 24 hours as the coronal effect shows further decline.
Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next
three days with some possibility of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22122222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 22112222
Canberra 6 12113222
Hobart 6 02113312
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1201 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
08 Mar 4 Quiet
09 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
with some unsettled periods today. Due to the effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from the currently geoeffective
coronal hole the geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled
levels at times on 7 March. Mostly quiet conditions may be
expected on the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF enhancements were observed today.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 42 near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF enhancements were observed across
Aus/NZ region today. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
normal in this region for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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