[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 6 10:45:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Several C-class
flares were observed during the last 24 hours. Region 1164(N24W14)
and region 1166(N10E41) grew in white light area coverage as
well as sunspot count. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decline
from 540 km/s to nearly 490 km/s over the last 24 hours indicating
further weakening in the solar wind stream as the coronal hole
gets closer to the western limb. The Bz component of IMF varied
between +/- 4nT through most of the day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to show a further gradual weakeing over the next
24 hours as the coronal hole effect shows further decline, but a
possible arrival of a slow CME (observed on 03) March may provide
some strength to the solar wind stream around the same time. Solar
activity is expected to stay mostly at low levels for the next
three days with some possibility of M-class activity from region
1164 and 1166. Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1158 is
due for return to the south-east limb around 6 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22112222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 22112212
Canberra 3 12002111
Hobart 4 12112121
Casey(Ant) 11 34-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 6 Quiet
08 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
with some unsettled periods today. Due to the effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from the currently geoeffective
coronal hole and a possible effect of a slow CME , the
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at unsettled
levels on 6 March and then show a graudal decline to quiet
levels on the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on high and some mid latitude
locations over the next 24 hours due to an expected continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. HF
conditions may show some improvements after that day as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to weaken by then.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Mar 35 near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 38 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ region today due to enhanced geomagnetic activity levels.
Some periods of MUF enhancements were also observed. Minor
to mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions
may be possible for this region over the next 24 hours as
the geomagnetic activity is expected to stay relatively higher
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the following two days thereafter as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to show significant decline by then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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