[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 5 10:51:49 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Region 1164(N23W14)
produced today's lagest flare(a C1.7 flare at 1200UT). Solar
wind speed showed a gradual decline from 640 km/s to nearly 520
km/s over the last 24 hours indicating a weakening in the solar
wind stream as the coronal hole gets closer to the western limb.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 4nT through most of
the day today. Solar wind stream is expected to show a further
gradual weakeing over the next 24 hours as the coronal effect
shows further decline. Solar wind stream may again show some
strengthening on 06 March due an expected arrival of a slow CME
that was observed on 03 March. Solar activity is expected to
stay mostly at low levels for the next three days with some
possibility of M-class activity from region 1164 and 1166 (N09E55).
Region 1166 has shown significant growth both in sunspot count
as well as area over the last 24 hours. Previously X-flare(s)
producing region 1158 is due for return to the south-east limb
around 6 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 22333323
Darwin 10 22233322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 12 22233333
Canberra 9 12233322
Hobart 13 23343322
Casey(Ant) 18 3-433334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2242 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly quiet to unsettled
levels today. Due to the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the currently geoeffective coronal hole and a possible
effect of a slow CME , the geomagnetic activity is expected to
stay mostly at unsettled levels for the next two days with some
possibility of isolated active periods during this period. Mostly
quiet conditions may be expected on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed on mid and high latitude locations
during the next two days due to an expected continued rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions may
show some improvements on the third day as the geomagnetic activity
is expected to weaken around that time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% over the UT
day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Mar 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to significant MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ region today due to enhanced geomagnetic activity levels.
Some periods of MUF enhancements were also observed. Minor to
mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be
expected for this region for the next two days as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay relatively higher for two more days.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the third day
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to show significant decline
by then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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