[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 4 10:46:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Region
1164(N25W06) produced three C-flares, the largest being
a C5 that peaked at 1420UT. A slow(estimated speed 247 km/s)
earthward directed CME was also observed in the LASCO imagery
at 0636UT. Solar wind speed stayed between 580 and 640 km/s
for most parts of the UT day today as the effect of the coronal
hole continues. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 05T
through most of the day today. Solar wind stream is expected
to remain strengthened due to the effect of a recurrent coronal
hole for the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to stay
mostly at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of M-class activity from region 1164.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 22423323
Darwin 10 22323322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 12 22323333
Canberra 12 22413323
Hobart 11 22422323
Casey(Ant) 17 34433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 4432 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at unsettled to
active levels today. Due to the effect of the high speed solar
wind stream from the currently geoeffective coronal hole, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at unsettled
to active levels for the next two days and then gradually
decline to unsettled levels by the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on mid and high latitude
locations during the next two days due to an expected continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions
may show some improvements on the third day as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to weaken around that time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day periods of MUF
depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to significant MUF depressions were observed
across Aus/NZ region today due to enhanced geomagnetic
activity levels. Against expectations, some periods of MUF
enhancements were also observed. Minor to mild degradations
in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be expected in this
region for the next two days as the geomagnetic activity is
expected to stay relatively higher for two more days. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the third day as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to show significant decline
by then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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