[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 3 10:39:32 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Today's
largest flare, a C1(1318UT) was produced by region
1164(N25E08). Solar wind speed stayed between 620 and
660 km/s for most parts of the UT day today as the effect
of the coronal hole continues. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +/-5 nT until around 0400UT and then stayed
mostly close to the normal value for the rest of the UT day
today. Solar wind stream is expected to remain strengthened
due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole for the next
3 days. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of M-class
activity from region 1164.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 43323332
Darwin 11 33223322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 15 43223432
Canberra 12 33323322
Hobart 16 33423432
Casey(Ant) 22 54433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 31 2224 5654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at unsettled to
active levels today with isolated minor storm periods. Due
to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the
currently geoeffective coronal hole, the geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay mostly at unsettled to active levels for
the next two days and then gradually decline to unsettled
levels by the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on mid and high latitude
locations during the next two days due to an expected continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions
may show some improvements on the third day as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to weaken around that time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
05 Mar 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
2 March and is current for interval 2-3 March. Minor to
significant MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ
region today due to enhanced geomagnetic activity levels.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this region
for the next two days with the possibility of some improvements
on the third day as the geomagnetic activity is expected to
show some decline by the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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