[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:53:37 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed Very Low today. Solar wind
speed stayed between 380 and 440 km/s for most parts of the day
today, whereas the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT
almost the whole day. Solar activity is expected to be Low over
the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity.
Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal levels on 19
June, and then show strengthening from 20 June as a coronal hole
is expected to become geoeffective from 20 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11200000
Darwin 2 11200100
Townsville 2 11200101
Learmonth 2 11210000
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 4311 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 7 Quiet to unsettled
21 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet today. Mostly quiet
conditins may be expected on 19 June. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to rise to Unsettled levels on 20 and 21 June due to
the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
were observed on 18 June. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on 19 June with the possibility of minor to mild degradations
on 20 and 21 June due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 48 near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
15%
21 Jun 42 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in most
locations today. HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly
normal on 19 June. Minor to mild degradations may be possible
on 20 and 21 June due to an expected enhancement in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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