[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 20 09:47:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar acitivty was low with 2 C-Class flares,
a C4.7 from region 1234(S16W74) at 1522UT and a C1.5 from
region 1237 (S15E39) at 1637UT. New region 1238(S17E11)
was numbered today. A partial halo CME was observed in
SOHO imagery at around 1648UT associated with the C1.7 flare
from region 1237. STEREO imagery suggests that it has an
Earthward directed component.The solar wind speed remained
at low levels between 380-410km/s almost the whole day.The
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day.
A weak coronal hole may slightly elevate the wind speed from
20th June. Solar wind stream is expected to show a further
strengthening from late on 22 June as a large coronal hole
is expected to become geoeffective around that time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 2 11011011
Learmonth 2 11111001
Canberra 1 01011000
Hobart 1 00111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet today with isolated
Unsetteled periods at high latitude locations. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise to Unsettled levels on 20 and
21 June due to the expected effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a weak coronal hole. Isolated Active periods might
be possible late on 22 June as a large coronal hole is expected
to take a geoeffective position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal-fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions were observed on 19 June. Mild to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
21 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
22 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
in most locations today. Mild to moderate MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next 3
days due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 55800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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