[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 18 09:54:14 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at Very Low levels through most 
parts of the UT today. Two flares that seem to have just passed 
the threshold of C-class levels have been observed just at the 
time of issue of this report, which seem to have raised the solar 
activity to Low levels over the whole day. A sudden impulse, 
possibly related to a glancing blow from the CME of 14 June, 
was also observed at 0240UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from 550 to 420 km/s from 0200UT to 2330UT. The IMF 
Bz varied between +/-6nT for most parts of the UT day. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with some 
possibility of isolated M-class activity. Solar wind stream is 
expected to further weaken on 18 June, stay at normal levels 
on 19 June, and then show strengthening from 20 June as a coronal 
hole is expected to become geoeffective from 20 June. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
17/1840UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32112211
      Darwin               9   32222322
      Townsville           6   32122211
      Learmonth            7   32112321
      Canberra             4   22111210
      Hobart               5   32112210
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     5    Quiet 
19 Jun     5    Quiet 
20 Jun     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled conditions observed on some locations. Mostly quiet 
conditins may be expected for the next two days. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to rise to Unsettled levels on 20 June due 
to the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a coronal hole. 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0240UT on 17 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed on 17 June. HF conditions are expected 
remain mostly normal for the next 2 days with the possibility 
of minor to mild degradations on the third day due to an expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity levels from this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    38    near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Night-time depressions up to 20% were observed in the 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Continuing weak ionosphere observed 
in Antarctic region. HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly 
normal for the next 2 days. Minor to mild degradations may be 
possible on the third day due to an expected enhancement in geomgnetic
activity levels from this day for the following few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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