[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 17 09:48:24 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours.
Four C-class flares were observed today, the largest
being a C7.1 flare at 1022UT from region 1236(N17E58).
A dissapearing filament was observed in SDO imagery at
1426UT after which a narrow CME off the SW limb was
observed in LASCO imagery at 1612UT. It is not expected
to have any significant geoeffective component. Solar
wind speed mostly varied between 420Km/s and 460Km/s
until 1500UT after which speed increased to 500 km/s.
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT over the UT day
trending to positive at the time of report issue. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days
with some possibility of isolated M-class flares. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease back to normal levels
over the next 24 hours and stay at normal levels for the
following two days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 16/1550UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111300
Darwin 3 11111201
Townsville 2 11110201
Learmonth 3 11011300
Canberra 2 01000300
Hobart 2 00101300
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 7 Quiet to unsettled
18 Jun 5 Quiet
19 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with isolated
Unsettled conditions observed on some locations after 1500UT
most likely due to the slight incease observed in the solar wind
speed around that time. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet to Unsettled on 17 June and mostly quiet on the following
two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions were observed on 16 June. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 17 June. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 18 and 19 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
18 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night-time depressions up to 30% were observed in the
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Continuing weak ionosphere observed
in Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation conditions mostly
near predicted monthly values. Expect nearly similar conditions
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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