[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 11 09:48:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Active
region 1226 produced a C2.9 level flare at 1750UT, followed by
a West-directed CME. This region is now behind the West solar
limb. There are no regions of complex magnetic structure on the
visible disk but further C-class activity is possible from AR
1228. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind after 0820UT.
This was probably the anticipated arrival of the flare-induced
CME observed Jun 07. At shock arrival the solar wind speed stepped
from about 400 to 500 km/s then declined steadily over a few
hours to 400 km/s. IMF Bz showed mild to moderate fluctuations
of +/-5nT.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0806UT on
10 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 21232211
Darwin 7 21232222
Townsville 6 21322211
Learmonth 7 21332111
Canberra 1 100-----
Hobart 5 20232111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 3322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun 6 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The anticipated solar wind shock resulting from the
halo CME of Jun 07 was observed at the ACE satellite platform
at about 0820UT. Geomagnetic disturbance was less than anticipated.
The Australian regional geomagnetic field became unsettled during
the second quarter of the UT day, declining to mostly quiet over
the second half of the UT day. Conditions remained quiet to unsettled
at high latitudes. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Night-time spread-F observed S Aus/S Ocean regions. Continuing
weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation
conditions mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect similar
conditions next three days. Disturbance resulting from the anticipated
halo-CME induced solar wind shock was less then expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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