[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 12 09:42:48 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24
hours. There are no complex spot groups on the visible solar
disk. A number of minor N- and W-directed CME's observed in LASCO
C3 imagery over the UT day were probably far-side events. There
is a small coronal hole just W of solar central meridian. Solar
wind speed increased slightly over the second half of the UT
day to 440 km/s at the time of report issue. This is possibly
due to the favourably positioned coronal hole. There was a period
of moderate (-10nT) southward Bz during the first quarter of
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 23333111
Darwin 9 22333112
Townsville 8 23233111
Learmonth 7 12233111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 8 13323111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2013 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jun 6 Quiet
14 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Moderate southward IMF Bz during the early part of the
UT day resulted in Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region with Unsettled to Active conditions at higher latitudes.
Conditions were generally quiet over the later part of the UT
day. Slightly elevated solar wind parameters possible days one
to two of the forecast period resulting in periods of Unsettled
geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data before 06UT.
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Briefly depressed to 20% local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Briefly depressed MUF's observed most regions around
local dawn. Night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Night-time spread-F observed S Aus region. Continuing
weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation
conditions mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect similar
conditions next three days. Disturbed periods possible next 1-2
days S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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