[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 10 09:34:57 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Active region
1226 produced C1.8 and C4.1 level flares after 0300 UT. This
region is now on the West solar limb. There are no regions of
complex magnetic structure on the visible disk but further C-class
activity is possible from AR 1228. Solar wind speed declined
steadily over the UT day until 21UT after which velocities increased
from 350 to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field maintained slightlty negative over the UT day,
trending to positive at the time of report issue. Solar wind
parameters are expected to increase with the arrival of the CME
observed Jun 07.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/0035UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222122
Darwin 7 22312122
Townsville 7 22322122
Learmonth 6 22222122
Canberra 5 12222111
Hobart 8 22233122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 5422 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 25 Active
11 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 June and
is current for interval 9-10 June. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet
to Unsettled at low and mid latitudes with isolated Active to
Minor Storm levels observed at high latitudes. Conditions are
expected to become Active on day one with the arrival of a CME
observed Jun 07. Minor to major storm levels possible at high
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0840UT 07/06, Ended at 1730UT 08/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region. Variable night-time depressions observed
Equatorial/ N Aus regions. Periods of spread-F mainly local night
S Aus/NZ regions. Generally weak ionosphere Antarctic region.
Conditions in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions could be disturbed next
three days due to anticipated geomagnetic activity associated
with recent solar flare/CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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