[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 09:25:23 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. No
sunspot regions of significant size or magnetic complexity are
on the disc. The solar wind speed ranged between 450-600 km/s.
The IMF Bz ranged between +/- 5nT with extended southward periods.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the forecast
period. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually reduce
for the first part of the 9th before increasing around the middle
of the UT day due to the expected arrival of a CME from the M2.4
flare observed on the 7th. Wind speeds are expected to be elevated
on the 10th and begin to reduce to quiescent levels on the 11th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 32113102
Darwin 8 33213102
Townsville 8 33123102
Learmonth 7 32213112
Canberra 3 22112001
Hobart 8 42123102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1011 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 25 Active to minor storm
10 Jun 25 Active to minor storm
11 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 June and
is current for interval 9-10 June. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet
to Unsettled at low and mid latitudes with isolated Active to
Minor Storm levels in polar regions. Mainly Quiet conditions
are expected for the first part of the 9th, increasing to Active
with possible Minor Storm conditions at low and mid latitudes
and Minor Storm levels in polar regions due to the expected arrival
of a CME. These condtions are expected to continue on the 10th
and then reduce to Unsettled with possible Active periods on
the 11th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0840UT 07/06, Ended at 1730UT 08/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
10 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressions of up to 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressions of up to 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region. Some night time depressed MUF periods
were observed in Northern regions. Generally weak ionosphere
observed in the Antarctic region. Blanketing sporadic E was observed
for much of the night around Hobart. Propagation conditions may
be affected by an expected geomagnetic disturbance occuring for
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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