[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 8 09:29:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0634UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 96/43 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate with a single long duration
M2.5 class X-ray flare from region 1226(S21W64) at 0616UT. Type
II and IV radio bursts and a large CME were observed associated
with this flare. LASCO and STEREO imagery indicate that a significant
portion of the ejected plasma is likely to strike the Earth at
an expected arrival time around the middle of June 9th UT. The
solar wind speed increased from around 400 km/s to up to 500
km/s. The IMF Bz had several southward excursions of up to -8nT.
Flare activity is expected to be Low over the next few days.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current levels
for the next day and then is expected to increase on the 9th
due to the CME observed at 0616UT. Significant IMF Bz southward
excursions are possible after this time.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
07/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 11111233
Darwin 6 11111233
Townsville 7 11211233
Learmonth 7 01121333
Canberra 2 00000222
Hobart 3 1101122-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3221 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 25 active
10 Jun 25 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low and
mid lattitudes with isolated Active to Minor Storm levels in
polar regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over
the next day due to mildly elevated solar wind speeds with some
IMF Bz southward excursions occuring. Conditions are expected
to become Active with Minor Storms at high lattiudes on the 9th
and 10th of June due to the expected arrival of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 06 2011 0840UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
09 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
10 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by up to 30% between 07-12UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable conditions around monthly values,
Some depressions of up to 30% at times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Blanketing sporadic E was observed at times in equatorial
regions and also for much of the local night at Hobart. A short
wave fadeout was observed at Cocos Island around 07UT following
an M2.4 solar X-ray flare. This event also caused a Polar Cap
Absorpotion (PCA) event begining around 08UT which remains in
progress. Propagation conditions may be affected by an expected
geomagnetic disturbance on the 9th and 10th of June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 64300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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