[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 2 09:43:57 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. A C2
flare was observed from region 1228(N17E41) at 0253UT and C1,
C2 and C4 flares from 1226(S22E18). The last of these (at 1708UT)
was associated with a CME which is expected to impact earth on
5 Jun. A CME observed in STEREO images at ~04UT will possibly
be geoeffective late on 3 Jun. Further C-class events are likely
over the next few days. Solar wind speed decreased gradually
from ~600km/s to ~500km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT and
has remained southward for the last 2 hours. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be more disturbed over the next 2-3 days with
the possible influence of CMEs observed today and on 27 and 29
May. Coronal hole effects are expected to increase from 3 Jun.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
01/1750UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 21312323
Darwin 9 21312323
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 9 21312323
Canberra 8 22312312
Hobart 7 21312312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3333 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 12 Unsettled
03 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Active periods are expected for the next 3 days. Storm
periods are likely at high latitudes due to CME and coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions are expected over the next 3
days, especially on 3 Jun, due to the effects of possible CME
impacts and an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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