[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:40:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1132(N10E61) produced a C1.8 flare. C1.2 and C2.7 flares were
observed from region 1126(S22E05). Region 1227(S19E17) produced
C1.4 and C3.7 flares, the latter (at 0746UT) was associated with
a partial-halo CME expected to be geoeffective on 4 Jun. Further
C-class events are expected over the next 3 days. Solar wind
speed decreased gradually over the last 24 hours from ~500km/s
to ~450km/s. IMF Bz varied from 0 to -5nT until ~18UT and has
fluctuated between +/-3nT since then. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase with the onset of a coronal hole on 3 Jun. The solar
wind parameters will probably be disturbed for the next 3 days
due to combined coronal hole and CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22232111
Darwin 5 22221121
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 22332211
Canberra 4 22222010
Hobart 6 22232110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3131 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
04 Jun 20 Active
05 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Active periods are expected for the next 3 days with
occasional Storm periods at higher latitudes. A weak CME is expected
on 3 Jun with stronger CME impacts on 4 and 5 Jun. Coronal hole
effects are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 15% over the UT
day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
04 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
05 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: Occasional depressions are expected over the next 3
days, due to CME and coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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