[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:36:04 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. C1 flares
were observed from regions 1226(S21E33) and 1227(S18E45). Further
C-class events are likely over the next few days. Solar wind
speed increased from ~550km/s and is now varying between 550-650km/s.
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT and has remained mostly southward
for the last 4 hours. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain
disturbed over the next day, becoming more so on 2-3 Jun with
the possible influence of CMEs observed on 27 and 29 May and
mild coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 9 22332222
Darwin 9 22332222
Townsville 9 223322--
Learmonth 12 22333233
Canberra 9 22332222
Hobart 10 22333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3213 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 12 Unsettled
03 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Unsettled over
the past 24 hours with Storm periods at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to decline slightly over the next day, with increased
activity again on 2 Jun due to possible impact of the CMEs observed
on 27 and 29 May and mild coronal hole effects. Some Active periods
are possible on 2-3 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected over the next
3 days with the possibility of depressions at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 610 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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