[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 26 09:33:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E59) showed strong growth producing
a couple of subflares, all other regions were stable or decaying.
Solar wind speed increased from 450 to 640 km/s while the north/south
IMF component ranged between +/-6 nT. A weak coronal hole is
the likely cause of the elevation in speed. Solar wind speed
is expected to decrease over 26 and 27 Jul. A CME was observed
in LASCO and STEREO images around 24/1940 UT; it is not expected
to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 23223121
Darwin 9 23323122
Townsville 9 23233121
Learmonth 8 22223231
Canberra 4 12222110
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
28 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Periods of minor storm levels were observed at southern
high latitudes. Active levels possible at high latitudes on 26
and 27 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced 03-11
UT. Depressions to 35% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
00, 12-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. Depressions to 35% at Hobart and
Learmonth 12-20 UT. Night spread F observed at most
stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere with frequencies near predicted
monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
27 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
28 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 54400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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