[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:31:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 97/44 99/46
COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E46) produced a C1.2 flare at 0339 UT.
This region and new region 1261 (N17E77) produced a number of
sub-flares. Both regions appear stable. Culgoora Observatory
noted a new region (single spot) located at N18W22. A C3.8 flare
occurred at 2241UT, source unknown at this time. Solar wind speed
decreased to around 450 km/s while the north/south IMF component
ranged between +/-5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
be undisturbed over the forecast period although there is the
possibility of mild disturbance late on 28 to 29 July due to
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22211021
Darwin 5 22221021
Townsville 4 22211021
Learmonth 5 22320020
Canberra 1 11100010
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2332 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 5 Quiet
28 Jul 5 Quiet
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
26-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40% 14-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40% 08-10 UT
and depressions to 25% 11 and 20-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly depressed to 35% at Darwin. Near predicted monthly values
with depressions to 25% 10-12, 22-23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25% mostly
around 08-12, 22-23 UT. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere with MUFs near predicted monthly values to 25%
depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
28 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
29 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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