[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 25 09:43:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
New region 1260(N20E71) was numbered today. Solar wind speed
reduced from 500 Km/s to 400 Km/s over the UT day and the IMF
Bz fluctuated mostly between +/- 2nT. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor
C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at the
to normal levels for the next few days as the recent coronal
hole high speed stream rotated away.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11110221
Darwin 3 21110121
Townsville 4 11110222
Learmonth 3 11010221
Canberra 1 01000110
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3322 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 5 Quiet
26 Jul 7 Quiet
27 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at Low and Mid latitudes
(no data from Hobart). Polar regions were predominately Quiet
with Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet
for the next 3 days. ~
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas
over the last 24 hours. Periods of Sporadic-E and Spread-F were
observed at times during the forecast period. HF conditions are
expected to be similar for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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