[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 24 09:41:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No regions on the disc have a high flare probability. Solar wind
speed continued to decline from 600 Km/s to be about 500 Km/s
at the time of this report. The IMF Bz fluctuated mostly between
+/- 2nT over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain Very Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor
C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to return to quiescent
levels during the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22220111
Darwin 5 22220211
Townsville 4 22220111
Learmonth 5 22220221
Canberra 4 12220111
Hobart 3 1222010-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2331 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 5 Quiet
25 Jul 5 Quiet
26 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours for the Australian region. Polar regions were predominately
Unsettled with isolated Active and Storm periods. Conditions
are expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressions to 40% 13-17UT.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian
region with IPS Cocos Is. station having depressed periods up
to 40% during local night. Continuing weak ionosphere for the
Antarctic region. Similar HF conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list