[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:33:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed varied between 600-660 km/s trending downwards
in the later half of the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/- 5nT prior to 08UT then went northward staying close to 0nT
for the last 10 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor C-class flares.
Solar wind speed is expected to continue to diminish back to
quiescent levels over the next day or two as the coronal hole
high speed stream effects are expected to subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 23312212
Darwin 9 33312212
Townsville 7 23312112
Learmonth 9 23312223
Canberra 8 23312212
Hobart 8 23312212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 41 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3331 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 5 Quiet
25 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled for the
Australian region early in the UT day before decreasing to Quiet
conditions as Bz turned north. Conditions are expected to be
Quiet to Unsettled for day 1 with a return to mostly Quiet conditions
days 2 and 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly Normal propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continuing weak
ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 677 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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