[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 22 09:44:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 96/43 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased gradually from 660 km/s to 740 km/s
between 00UT and 05UT then declined to be 660km/s at 09UT staying
around 660 km/s for the rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz mostly
fluctuated between +/-4nT staying predominately positive (up
to around +4 nT) between 04UT and 10UT. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of C-class
flares. Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline over
the next 3 days as the effects of coronal hole wind stream subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22312222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 22312221
Learmonth 7 22222222
Canberra 8 32312221
Hobart 8 32312222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 42 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 103 (Major storm)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 19 3434 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
Australian region with Storm periods at high latitudes prior
to 8UT. After 8 UT the Bz went northward, reducing the activity
to Quiet levels. Activity is expected to become gradually Quieter
over the next 3 days with Unsettled periods becoming less frequent.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly Normal propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continuing weak
ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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