[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:54:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very Low
Flares: none
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1254(S22W17) produced several B class flares the largest
being a B8.3 flare at 1551UT. The solar wind speed mostly varied
between 560-680 Km/s over the last 24 hours and the IMF Bz fluctuated
between +/-5nT with sustained southward excursions. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance
of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next 2 days due the effects from the geoeffective coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 23243323
Darwin 13 23243323
Townsville 13 23243323
Learmonth 14 23243333
Canberra 12 23243223
Hobart 14 23343323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 75 (Active)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18 1123 3544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 14 Quiet to active
22 Jul 12 Quiet to active
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled with an
isolated active period around 10UT over the last 24 hours for
the Australian region. Isolated Minor Storm periods were observed
at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for 21-22
July, with activity declining thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Minor night time
depressions observed over the Equatorial and Northern AUS regions.
Generally weak ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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