[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 12 09:32:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past 24 hours. A C2.6
X-ray flare was observed at 1047UT with an associated type II
radio burst with estimated shock speed of 977 km/s. This has
been identified to have originated from region 1249(S18W04).
A CME was observed in association with this event with the STEREO
spacecraft, with an estimated Earthward component velocity of
around 700 km/s. Imagery from the LASCO instrument on SOHO is
unavailable at time of writing, making it difficult to determine
the extent to which this CME is Earth directed. However, given
the location of the originating region, there is likely to be
a significant component of the ejected plasma directed towards
the Earth. Arrival is expected on the 13th of June. Region 1247
retains the potential to produce C class flares with a small
chance of M class flares over the next few days. The solar wind
speed as measured by the ACE satellite ranged around 500 km/s
until around 17UT when the speed increased to 700 km/s likely
due to an additional coronal hole high speed stream. A weak shock
was observed at 0827UT, most likely due to the arrival of the
CME observed on the 9th. The IMF Bz component ranged between
+/- 5nT prior to the shock after which several larger southward
excursions of around -8nT occured. Towards the end of the day
the field settled back to the +/- 5nT fluctuation level. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next
3 days under the influence of coronal hole high speed streams
and the expected CME impact from the flare mentioned above on
the 13th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 11443222
Darwin 13 11443232
Townsville 12 11443222
Learmonth 13 21443232
Canberra 10 11343222
Hobart 13 21353222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3431 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse was observed at 0852UT after which
Active activity levels were observed for the next 2-3 hours across
most lattitudes, with Minor Storm levels seen from Hobart south
to Antarctica. After this brief period of activity, conditions
returned to Quiet with some Unsettled periods for the remainder
of the day, except for polar regions which continued to experience
isolated Minor Storms. Acitivty is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream for the
next few days. Active levels with possible isolated Minor Storms
are expected to occur on the 13th due to the expected arrival
of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 25%,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by up to 30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
13 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
14 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods of up to 30% continue to be experienced
across the Australian region. The overall trend continues to
be a gradual increase in MUF. Some disturbed ionospheric conditions
may occur on the 13th due to a CME impact.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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