[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 11 09:39:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar acitivty was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
A CME was observed on the northen pole early in the day, however
STEREO spacecraft imagery indicates this is a backside event.
Region 1247(S18W15) has grown in size and complexity and new
region 1250(S25E48) emerged and rapidly grew during the period.
Significant flare activity is not expected in the next few days
from either region, overall solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed as measured
by the ACE satellite ranged between 440-540 Km/s. The IMF Bz
component ranged between +/- 5nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated around 500 km/s with fluctuations for the
next 3 days due to the influence of high speed wind streams from
several small equatorial coronal holes. A CME is expected to
impact the Earth on the 12th. The wind speed from this relatively
slow CME is not expected to significantly exceed the already
elevated levels, however some Bz southward excursions may occur.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22211211
Darwin 6 23211212
Townsville 6 23212211
Learmonth 6 22221212
Canberra 4 12211211
Hobart 5 22211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 50 (Unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3412 1324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region over the previous day. Some Active periods occured in
the Antarctic region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 3 days due to persistant high speed
wind streams originating from several small equatorial coronal
holes. Active conditions over the Australian region and Minor
Storm levels in polar regions may occur on the 12th due to the
expected arrival of the CME observed early on the 9th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
12 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
13 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging up to 20% observed during local
day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Depressed
MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected to improve slightly
over the next few days, however depressions are expected to continue.
Some disturbed ionospheric conditions on the 12th may occur due
to possible Active geomagnetic conditions resulting from a CME
impact.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 91000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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