[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:24:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past 24 hours. Region
1247 (S18W40) produced a C1 flare at 1444UT. No regions currently
on the disk have high flare probabilites. The solar wind speed
as measured by the ACE satellite ranged between 650-700 km/s.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
is expected to diminish back to normal levels over the next 2
days. The CME observed on the 11th is expected to arrive late
on the 13th or early on the 14th. Images from the from the STEREO
spacecraft heliospheric imager instrument, which track CME
progress further from the Sun than the corongraph images available
to inform yesterdays forecast, suggest this CME will have little
if any geo-effectiveness.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 32123220
Darwin 8 32123221
Townsville 7 32123220
Learmonth 6 3212-220
Canberra 5 32011---
Hobart 5 22013120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 114 (Major storm)
Canberra 90 (Minor storm)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3234 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 12 Unsettled to active
14 Jul 14 Unsettled to active
15 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with some isolated Active
periods, were observed in the Australian region. Isolated Minor
Storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with Quiet conditions
expected on the 15th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed between 15-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by up to 20% during local day,
Near monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Jul 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed periods of up to 30% continue to be experienced
across the Australian region. Overall the MUFs were somewhat
more depressed that yesterday. These conditions are expected
to continue for another 2 days, with some increase in MUF expected
on the 15th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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