[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 4 09:40:54 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1244 was the source of a B9.5 class flare at 0024UT and an associated
type II radio sweep was observed with this event. LASCO imagery
suggests a possible glancing blow from the resulting CME. Region
1244 was also the source of a C2.1 class event at 1101UT and
other minor B-class events. Solar wind speed ranged between 380km/s
to 420km/s while IMF Bz ranged between +/-7nT over the UT day
with a sustained southward period between 00UT-02UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance
of further C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 22110000
Darwin 3 22111011
Townsville 3 22110011
Learmonth 2 22110000
Canberra 1 22000000
Hobart 2 22101000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 0001 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 6 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with Unsettled to Active periods for high latitudes
between 00UT-09UT. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southwern AUS/NZ regions
and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF
conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging from
being depressed by 10%-20% to near predicted monthly values for
the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 86600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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