[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:49:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. Solar wind speed ranged between
380km/s to 420km/s while IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 01100122
Darwin 3 11110121
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 2 00100122
Canberra 1 01000021
Hobart 2 00000122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 13 3432 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 6 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with Unsettled to Active periods for high latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jul. Quiet conditions
are expected for 04Jul-05Jul as the current mild coronal hole
solar wind stream subsides.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during
local day and night across the entire Australian/NZ region during
the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions of 10%-30% expected
for the next 24 hours at low to mid latidues and disturbed
ionospheric conditions for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic
activity. Slight improvement in ionospheric support expected for
04Jul-05Jul with variable HF conditions ranging from MUF depressions
of 10%-20% and near predicted monthly values for for the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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