[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:50:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. Regions 1243(N17E22) and newly
emerged region 1244(N16W10) were the source of numerous B-class
events. Solar wind speed increased from 320km/s at 00UT to a
max of 450km/s at 08UT and is 400km/s at the time of this report.
This increase in solar wind is attributed to a mid to high latitude
positioned coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the sun.
Solar wind speed is expected to decline in the next 24-36 hours.
IMF Bz underwent sustained southward excursions ranging from
-5nT to -10nT between 00UT-15UT before falling in magnitude to
fluctuate between +/-2nT at the time of this report. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22332311
Darwin 9 22322322
Townsville 8 22322311
Learmonth 10 22333321
Canberra 7 12332210
Hobart 9 12333310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2210 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 12 Unsettled
03 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with Active periods for high latitudes. Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods for high latitudes are
expected for 02Jul due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected 03Jul and mostly Quiet conditions for 04Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal-fair Poor-normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Poor-normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of approx 20% observed during local
day for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions during the last 24
hours. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. MUF
depressions of 10%-20% possible for mid to low latitudes during
local day and night for the next 2 days due to elevated
geomagnetic activity. Near predicited monthly MUF values
expected for 04Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 46900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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