[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:33:54 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1242 was the source of minor B-class flares. Solar wind
speed ranged between 360km/s to 440km/s while IMF Bz ranged between
-10nT to +7nT over the UT day with a sustained southward period
since 11UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the
next 3 days with the chance of isolated C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 11112233
Darwin 7 21211233
Townsville 7 21112233
Learmonth 11 11122344
Canberra 6 01112233
Hobart 9 11122243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3311 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 12 Unsettled
06 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours with Active periods for mid latitudes
and Storm periods for high latitudes from 18UT. Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled conditions are expected for 05-06Jul, with some
Active periods on 05Jul. Quiet conditions are expected on 07Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
06 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Depressed MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging
from being depressed by 15%-25% to depressed by 10%-20% for the
local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 89700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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