[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 27 10:44:04 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
varied between 280 and 320 km/s and the Bz component of IMF
varied between +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Very low to low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days. C-class activity may be possible during
this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111121
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 11112221
Canberra 2 11100111
Hobart 2 11101110
Casey(Ant) 9 33311131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 3 Quiet
28 Jan 3 Quiet
29 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations today. Continued very low levels of solar
activity seems to be the reason behind this as less ionising
radiation is reaching the ionoshere. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant variation
to the ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
28 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
29 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions today. Continued very low levels of
solar activity seems to be the reason behind continued
depressions in MUFs as less ionising radiation is reaching
the ionosphere due to very low solar activity. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected in this region for the next three
days as no significant variation to the ionospheric conditions
is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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