[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 26 10:29:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 79/19 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 25 January. Solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 320 to 360 km/s and the
Bz component of IMF stayed slightly negative (approx -3nT)
during most parts of the UT day today. Very low levels of
solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32222112
Darwin 6 31222112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 31112112
Canberra 3 21122001
Hobart 4 --222001
Casey(Ant) 10 43322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 4 Quiet
28 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations on 25 January. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions on 25 January. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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